むぎをの夜話: ライブドアvsフジテレビを総括

ライブドアvsフジテレビを総括

１．和解

今月１８日、ライブドア（4753）とフジテレビ（4676）の和解が発表されました。

大まかな内容を挙げると、以下のようになります。

（１）ライブドアグループの保有するニッポン放送（4660）株を、フジテレビが買い取る。
（２）フジテレビがライブドアの第三者割当増資（440億円余り）を引き受ける。
（３）業務提携についての委員会を設置し、前向きに話し合う。

２．和解の意味 ― ライブドアにとって

今回の騒動を実質的にみると、ライブドアは巨額の増資を成功させたことになります。

まず、ニッポン放送株を取得する際、ライブドアはリーマンブラザーズに転換社債を発行しています。これは本来的には借金ですが、リーマンが社債を株式に転換したことでライブドアの返済義務は消滅し、増資したのと同じ効果を得たわけです。報道によるとその調達額は約800億円。

なお、この転換社債には転換価格下方修正条項が付いていました（いわゆる MSCB）。しかも堀江社長が自らの保有する株をリーマンに貸与する条件まで負わされていたそうです（報道による）。「増資」として考えると非常にコストの高いものといえます。ただこれはライブドアには大した痛手ではありません。というのもこのコストを負担するのは株主だからです（つまり株主が、会社を介した間接的負担ではなく、直接に損失を負担する）。

そして（なんと驚いたことに）今回、特に株主側からライブドアへの批判が上がったということはないようです。また株価が極端に崩れることもありませんでした（たしかにライブドアの株価は下げましたが、MSCB絡みの諸条件を嫌気したというより、需給の影響で下げたといった印象です）。

次に、ライブドアは今回の和解でフジテレビに 440億円余りの新株を引受けさせています。しかも発行価格は役会の直前営業日である 4月15日の終値（329円）。これは非常にコストの掛からない、言い換えるならば「効率のよい」増資といえます。こんな増資、なかなかできるものではありません。

以上、２回の増資額を総計すると約1,240億円。今回騒動を起こした真の目的が増資であったとしたら、ライブドアの政策担当者は天才だと思います。

３．和解の意味 ― フジテレビにとって

他方、フジテレビにとっては、ニッポン放送を完全子会社化するという目的を果たすとともに、ライブドアによるフジテレビ本体の買収をとりあえず阻止できました。

４．ライブドアがフジテレビの株を取得しなかったことの意味

メディアはこれまで堀江社長がフジテレビの株に固執し、それをフジテレビ側が拒絶していると報じていました。今回の和解でライブドアは当面フジテレビの株を保有しないことになりましたから、この点から一般的には「ライブドア側も一定の譲歩を強いられた」と評価されることも多いようです。

しかしこの点、私の意見は違います。

ライブドアはしばしば世間から「Ｍ＆Ａによって成長した」と評価されています。けれども実質的にみると「株式分割などの積極的なファイナンス戦略によって成長した」と言う方がむしろ正しく、Ｍ＆Ａは、一時的に増大した時価総額を固定化させる手法として利用されたに過ぎません。つまり彼らは、自社の株価をいたずらに乱高下させた上で、株価が天井付近にあるタイミングを見計らって「既に充分成長しきって、経営も順調な会社」を買ってきただけなのです。 ―― これは少々乱暴な言い方で、ライブドア側からは当然異論があるでしょうが、少なくとも私はそう感じていますし、正直なところその戦略をまったく支持しません。

今回、ライブドアがフジテレビ（既に充分成長しきって、経営も順調な会社）の株式を相当数取得することになっていたら、それはこれまでの路線を踏襲するものでしかありません。私なら「あーあ、ライブドアもとうとう行き詰まったな」と考えたでしょう ―― 現在のライブドアの株価を考えると、かつてのように派手な株式分割を利用した拡大戦略は取れませんから。

ところが実際、ライブドアはフジテレビの株を取得せず、手元に 1,400億円余りのキャッシュを残しました。この状態は、ひとつの企業にとって大きな武器となります。このキャッシュをライブドアが有効な経営、あるいは本当の意味で「効果的なＭ＆Ａ」に利用するとしたら、今後、ライブドアは大きく跳ねると思います。

５．損をしたのは誰か？

今回の騒動で損をしたのは、ライブドアが増資を成功させた陰でその煽りを食らった人です。

まずは ライブドアの株主です。ライブドア第一の増資（リーマンに対する転換社債発行、およびその転換）により、ライブドアの株式は著しく希釈されました。今日までに同株式はある程度値を下げましたが、それでもいまの株価はかなり割高になっていると思われますからその分、株主は損をしています。 ―― また、リーマンはライブドアの株式を売買する過程で相当の鞘を抜いているはずで、この分は同時期に売買をした株主の一部が割を食った形になっています。

次に フジテレビが挙げられます。ライブドア第二の増資（フジテレビに対する第三者割当）により、フジテレビはライブドアの新株を時価で買うこととなりました。時価による第三者割当というのは、常識的に考えれば引き受ける側（今回で言えばフジテレビ）にとって不利なものです。

６．フジテレビは大丈夫なのか？

そしてそれ以外にもフジテレビは今回、無用な出費を強いられました。もちろんそれらがすべて「不利益な出捐」だというわけではないのですが、振り返ってみると「増配」「ＳＢＩとのファンド設立」「サンケイビルの増資引き受け」といった事項が思い出され、キャッシュフローが心配になってきます。

しかも今後の業務提携協議において、フジテレビは若干不利な立場に置かれています。

というのも、今後フジテレビ側がライブドアの提案を拒否し続けるような事態になれば、ライブドアが潤沢な資金を利用してフジテレビ本体への買収を仕掛けないとも限らないからです ―― この辺、和解の細かい内容がわからないので何とも言えないのですが、ライブドアがこうした「最後の切り札」を残さずに和解したとも思えません。

まあ、常識的に考えれば反対にフジテレビ側にもしたたかな計算があるに違いないんですけどね。
まずはそれを自社の株主に説明して、代表訴訟を回避するのが先決かもしれません。がんばれ、フジテレビ経営陣。

Posted by mugio at April 20, 2005 12:37 AM | Title:　ライブドアvsフジテレビを総括 | TrackBack

Comments

TB有難うございます。
的確な分析ですね。
ライブドアが今回、フジテレビから得た金額と、総合的な市場の評価。この２点を比べて、いかがなものでしょうか？結論は、まず、６カ月後ということにしましょう！
また、会話しましょう。

Posted by: グレート・ゴーヤ at April 20, 2005 05:37 PM

たしかにもう少し時間が経たないと評価しにくいという部分がありますね。特に市場の反応を考える場合、この先１年くらいの間に起きるかもしれない市場全体の雰囲気の変化まで考慮しなければなりませんから、（グレート・ゴーヤさんの仰るように）今の段階で結論を下すのは早いかもしれません。

Posted by: むぎを at April 20, 2005 11:12 PM

TBありがとうございます。
私もライブドアの総括についてはむぎをさんと一緒の見解です。
ただ、今回手元資金は潤沢になったとはいえ、結局MSCBもいれて@330～350での大量の時価発行をしたことで、むぎをさんのご指摘のような「演出した株高による時価総額の瞬間風速を利用した中小IT企業のM&A」という既存のビジネスモデルが使えなくなってしまったことになりますね。
幸い資本コストに無関心の株主が多いようですが、それにしても、今後は投資効率を考えたM&Aをしていかないとジリ貧になってしまうと思います。

Posted by: go2c at April 21, 2005 01:34 AM

コメントありがとうございました。

フジTVの条件はあまり良いとはいえませんが、
旧態依然とした経営から抜け出るきっかけにすることができれば、
他社から抜き出ることができるのでないかと思います。

Posted by: １喝たぬき at April 21, 2005 12:56 PM

はじめまして。
むぎをさまの丁寧でわかりやすい内容にＴＢさせていただきました。
真の目的が増資かもしれないという説には、起業から日が浅いとはいえ改めてライブドアの実力を印象づけられました。しかしもし本当にそうであったら、やはり所詮マネーゲームだったとも言えなくはないでしょうか。
第三者割当増資、なんだか日枝さんのため息がきこえそうな”関係”になってしまいましたね。

Posted by: 樹衣子 at April 21, 2005 10:40 PM

> go2c さん

私も同意見です。ライブドアは「これまでの特殊な経緯と特殊な浮動株主があってこそ」といった側面がありますから、今後の動向が注目されます。

> １喝たぬきさん

フジテレビが何を考えているのかさっぱりわからない、というのが私の正直な感想です。この先、１～２ヶ月の動向を見たいと思います。

> 樹衣子さん

仰る通り、”関係”の行方は気になりますね。個人的には、ライブドアに主導される形になるとフジテレビは少々厳しいかなという気がしています。いかなるものであれ「強烈な色」が付いてしまうことはメディアの死を意味しますので（・・・まあ、無色透明なメディアというものがそもそも理想の上でしか成り立たないのかもしれませんが）。

ところで中原中也、私も好きです。

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